<![CDATA[FootyFinance: Europa League]]>https://footyfinance.substack.com/s/europa-leaguehttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SO0J!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F46bc2221-6cfb-4408-b226-adf18bd1fc9e_488x488.pngFootyFinance: Europa Leaguehttps://footyfinance.substack.com/s/europa-leagueSubstackSun, 26 Apr 2026 03:47:40 GMT<![CDATA[Updated UEFA Europa League Revenue Forecast Post Round of 16]]>https://footyfinance.substack.com/p/updated-uefa-europa-league-revenuehttps://footyfinance.substack.com/p/updated-uefa-europa-league-revenueThu, 02 Apr 2026 11:05:43 GMTThis report provides an updated 2025/26 UEFA Europa League TV revenue model following completion of the Round of 16. Aston Villa remains the favorite to win the competition (as has been the case in all forecasts thus far) earning the club revenue of €42mm (unchanged vs. prior model). Largest upward revision vs. prior forecast is at Porto who are now the projected runner-up with revenue of €34mm. Largest downward revision (-€14mm) is at Lyon who exited in the Round of 16 vs. Celta Vigo. Lyon was the projected runner-up in the pre Round of 16 model. Of note, betting odds correctly predicted 6/8 Round of 16 ties. Other changes are downward revision at Roma who exited in the Round of 16, and upward revisions at Celta Vigo and Bologna. Forecasted quarterfinal results are Aston Villa over Bologna, Porto over Nottingham Forest, Real Betis over Braga, and Celta Vigo over Freiburg. Starting fee and value pillar revenue estimates for each club are unchanged - only the performance component. Full detail on revisions and updated forecasts provided within.

Updated Revenue Forecast

Estimate Revisions

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Revenue Breakdown by Category

  • Start Fee

    • €19mm per club

  • Performance Payout

    • Based on league stage and knockout round win/loss performance

    • Payout amounts detailed in “Performance Payout” section of the appendix

  • Value Pillar

    • Combines country’s TV market value with individual UEFA club coefficients

    • Further detailed in “Value Pillar” section below

Starting fee and value pillar estimates for all clubs are unchanged. Updated performance payout outlook reflects actual group stage performance and forecasted knockout round performance (via betting odds).

Performance Payout

The UEFA Champions League performance payout distributes revenue to each club based on 1) win/draw/loss record in the league stage, and 2) progression in the knockout stage.

League stage calculations are based on actual results (see table below) with knockout round forecast based on current betting odds to win the competition. The top two teams make the final, top four make the semi-finals, top eight make the quarter-finals, etc. Estimates will be updated as each round finishes and as betting odds change.

Note that each draw in the league stage adds to a pool of unallocated performance revenue (difference between win payout and draw payout). This unallocated draw revenue is allocated to each team in the league stage based on final position in the table. The last place team receives one “share” of this unallocated draw revenue (equivalent to €0.04mm), while the first place team receives 36 shares (equivalent to €1.36mm). There were 50 total draws in the 2025/26 league stage.

Value Pillar

The UEFA Champions League value pillar combines a country’s TV market value with individual club coefficients. The distribution is split into a European and Non-European part with the division being 73%/27%, respectively, for the 2025/26 season.

  • European Part

    • Two separate rankings (media market value and UEFA five-year coefficient)

    • Media market rankings are based on domestic broadcasters’ contribution to overall media revenue

      • Within each country, clubs are ranked by a point total based on participation in the group phase of UEFA competitions over the previous five seasons

      • 3 points for UCL, 2 points for UEL,1 point for UECL

    • Media market rankings are estimated using historical TV revenue disclosed in the UEFA European Club Finance and Investment Landscape reports (most recent that includes TV revenue by country is for the 23/24 season - link)

      • For the 2025/26 season, France, England, Germany, Spain, and Italy, respectively, are estimated to be ranked as the top five markets

    • Separate ranking for each club based on five-year UEFA coefficient at start of the season

    • Overall European Part ranking based on average ranking (out of 36) of media market value and five-year coefficient (lower the better)

    • As detailed in the appendix, the lowest ranking receives €0.9mm, while highest receives €33.7mm (€0.9mm * 36)

  • Non-European Part

    • Based on the ten-year UEFA coefficient ranking

    • Lowest ranking receives €0.3mm, while highest receives €12.4mm (€0.3mm * 36)

The European and Non-European parts are added together to form total value pillar revenue.

Appendix:

Revenue Payout Structure

*All forecasts below as of April 2nd, 2026*

Revenue by Club – Germany

Revenue by Club - England

Revenue by Club – Italy

Revenue by Club – Spain

Revenue by Club – France

Revenue by Club – Sweden

Revenue by Club – Norway

Revenue by Club – Greece

Revenue by Club – Denmark

Revenue by Club – Austria

Revenue by Club – Switzerland

Revenue by Club – Scotland

Revenue by Club – Netherlands

Revenue by Club – Turkey

Revenue by Club – Portugal

Revenue by Club – Serbia

Revenue by Club – Czech Republic

Revenue by Club – Belgium

Revenue by Club – Bulgaria

Revenue by Club – Croatia

Revenue by Club – Hungary

Revenue by Club – Romania

Revenue by Club – Israel

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]]><![CDATA[Updating UEFA Europa League TV Revenue Model Post Knockout Play-Offs]]>https://footyfinance.substack.com/p/updating-uefa-europa-league-tv-revenuehttps://footyfinance.substack.com/p/updating-uefa-europa-league-tv-revenueWed, 11 Mar 2026 11:02:51 GMTThis report provides an updated 2025/26 UEFA Europa League TV revenue model following completion of the knockout play-offs last week. Aston Villa remains the favorite to win the competition and therefore garner the highest revenue at €42mm (unchanged vs. prior model). Projected runner-up is now Lyon which will earn the club revenue of €36mm (vs. €29mm semi-final finish in prior model). Real Betis forecast is also higher (now €28mm vs. €23mm prior) driven by projected semi-final finish (quarter-final prior). Largest downward revisions are at Roma and Porto who are impacted by softer than previously expected knockout stage progression. Roma is now forecasted to reach the semi-finals (vs. final prior), while Porto reaches the quarter-finals (vs. semi-finals prior). Starting fee and value pillar revenue estimates for each club are unchanged - only the performance component. Full detail on revisions and updated forecasts provided within.

Updated Forecast

Estimate Revisions

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Revenue Breakdown by Category

  • Start Fee

    • €4.3mm per club

  • Performance Payout

    • Based on league stage and knockout round win/loss performance

    • Payout amounts detailed in “Performance Payout” section of the appendix

  • Value Pillar

    • Combines country’s TV market value with individual UEFA club coefficients

    • Further detailed in “Value Pillar” section below

Starting fee and value pillar estimates for all clubs are unchanged. Updated performance payout outlook reflects actual league stage performance and forecasted knockout round performance (via betting odds).

Performance Payout

The UEFA Europa League performance payout distributes revenue to each club based on 1) win/draw/loss record in the league stage, and 2) progression in the knockout stage.

League stage calculations are based on actual results (see table below) with knockout round forecast based on current betting odds to win the competition. The top two teams make the final, top four make the semi-finals, top eight make the quarter-finals, etc. Estimates are updated as each round finishes and as betting odds change.

Note that each draw in the league stage adds to a pool of unallocated performance revenue (difference between win payout and draw payout). This unallocated draw revenue is allocated to each team in the league stage based on final position in the table. The last place team receives one “share” of this unallocated draw revenue (equivalent to €0.01mm), while the first place team receives 36 shares (equivalent to €0.41mm). There were 50 total draws in the 2025/26 league stage.

Value Pillar

The UEFA Europa League value pillar combines a country’s TV market value with individual club coefficients. The distribution is split into a European and Non-European part with the division being 73%/27%, respectively, for the 2025/26 season.

  • European Part

    • Two separate rankings (media market value and UEFA five-year coefficient)

    • Media market rankings are based on domestic broadcasters’ contribution to overall media revenue

      • Within each country, clubs are ranked by a point total based on participation in the group phase of UEFA competitions over the previous five seasons

      • 3 points for UCL, 2 points for UEL, 1 point for UECL

    • Media market rankings are estimated using historical TV revenue disclosed in the UEFA European Club Finance and Investment Landscape reports (most recent that includes TV revenue by country is for the 23/24 season - link)

      • For the 2025/26 season, Germany, England, Italy, Spain, and France, respectively, are ranked as the top five markets

    • Separate ranking for each club based on five-year UEFA coefficient at start of the season

    • Overall European Part ranking based on average ranking (out of 36) of media market value and five-year coefficient (lower the better)

    • As detailed in the appendix, the lowest ranking receives €0.2mm, while highest receives €7.8mm (€0.2mm * 36)

  • Non-European Part

    • Based on the ten-year UEFA coefficient ranking

    • Lowest ranking receives €0.3mm, while highest receives €12.4mm (€0.3mm * 36)

The European and Non-European parts are added together to form total value pillar revenue.

Appendix:

Revenue Payout Structure

*All forecasts below as of March 11th, 2026*

Revenue by Club – Germany

Revenue by Club - England

Revenue by Club – Italy

Revenue by Club – Spain

Revenue by Club – France

Revenue by Club – Sweden

Revenue by Club – Norway

Revenue by Club – Greece

Revenue by Club – Denmark

Revenue by Club – Austria

Revenue by Club – Switzerland

Revenue by Club – Scotland

Revenue by Club – Netherlands

Revenue by Club – Turkey

Revenue by Club – Portugal

Revenue by Club – Serbia

Revenue by Club – Czech Republic

Revenue by Club – Belgium

Revenue by Club – Bulgaria

Revenue by Club – Croatia

Revenue by Club – Hungary

Revenue by Club – Romania

Revenue by Club – Israel

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]]><![CDATA[UEFA Reports 2024/25 Europa League Revenue - FootyFinance Estimates See €0mm Average Variance vs. Actual Results]]>https://footyfinance.substack.com/p/uefa-reports-202425-europa-leaguehttps://footyfinance.substack.com/p/uefa-reports-202425-europa-leagueMon, 16 Feb 2026 21:06:50 GMTOfficial figures for 2024/25 UEFA Europa League revenue distributions were released last Thursday (link). FootyFinance estimates averaged €0mm variance vs. actual results across total revenue, performance payout revenue, and value pillar revenue. Latest revenue forecast for the 2025/26 UEFA Europa League can be found here. Further detail on the 2024/25 Europa League detailed in the tables below.

Comparison of Estimated vs. Actual Results

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Total Revenue

Starting Fee

Performance Payout

Value Pillar

]]><![CDATA[Updating UEFA Europa League TV Revenue Model Post League Stage ]]>https://footyfinance.substack.com/p/updating-uefa-europa-tv-revenue-modelhttps://footyfinance.substack.com/p/updating-uefa-europa-tv-revenue-modelTue, 03 Feb 2026 13:01:58 GMTKey Message: This report provides an updated 2025/26 UEFA Europa League TV revenue model following completion of the league stage last week. The initial January 18th revenue forecast and guide to distribution methodology can be found here. Lyon sees the largest upward revision vs. the prior model (+€5mm) after finishing at the top of the league stage and is now forecasted to reach the semi-finals of the knockout stage (vs. quarter-final finish projected previously). Aston Villa and Roma are still forecasted to reach the final of the competition (consistent with prior forecast). Largest downward revision is at Real Betis (-€4mm) driven by forecast to now reach the quarter-finals of the knockout stage (vs. semi-finals previously). All other revisions are within €2-3mm of prior forecast reflecting actual league stage performance (vs. forecasted previously) and updated knockout round outlook. Starting fee and value pillar revenue estimates for each club are unchanged – only the performance component. Full detail on revisions and updated forecasts provided within.

Updated Forecast

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Revision Detail

Revenue Breakdown by Category

  • Start Fee

    • €4.3mm per club

  • Performance Payout

    • Based on league stage and knockout round win/loss performance

    • Payout amounts detailed in “Performance Payout” section of the appendix

  • Value Pillar

    • Combines country’s TV market value with individual UEFA club coefficients

    • Further detailed in “Value Pillar” section below

Starting fee and value pillar estimates for all clubs are unchanged. Updated performance payout outlook reflects actual league stage performance and forecasted knockout round performance (via betting odds).

Performance Payout

The UEFA Europa League performance payout distributes revenue to each club based on 1) win/draw/loss record in the league stage, and 2) progression in the knockout stage.

League stage calculations are based on actual results (see table below) with knockout round forecast based on current betting odds to win the competition. The top two teams make the final, top four make the semi-finals, top eight make the quarter-finals, etc. Estimates will be updated as each round finishes and as betting odds change.

Note that each draw in the league stage adds to a pool of unallocated performance revenue (difference between win payout and draw payout). This unallocated draw revenue is allocated to each team in the league stage based on final position in the table. The last place team receives one “share” of this unallocated draw revenue (equivalent to €0.01mm), while the first place team receives 36 shares (equivalent to €0.41mm). There were 50 total draws in the 2025/26 league stage.

Value Pillar

The UEFA Europa League value pillar combines a country’s TV market value with individual club coefficients. The distribution is split into a European and Non-European part with the division being 73%/27%, respectively, for the 2025/26 season.

  • European Part

    • Two separate rankings (media market value and UEFA five-year coefficient)

    • Media market rankings are based on domestic broadcasters’ contribution to overall media revenue

      • Within each country, clubs are ranked by a point total based on participation in the group phase of UEFA competitions over the previous five seasons

      • 3 points for UCL, 2 points for UEL, 1 point for UECL

    • Media market rankings are estimated using historical TV revenue disclosed in the UEFA European Club Finance and Investment Landscape reports (most recent is for the 23/24 season - link)

      • For the 2025/26 season, Germany, England, Italy, Spain, and France, respectively, are ranked as the top five markets

    • Separate ranking for each club based on five-year UEFA coefficient at start of the season

    • Overall European Part ranking based on average ranking (out of 36) of media market value and five-year coefficient (lower the better)

    • As detailed in the appendix, the lowest ranking receives €0.2mm, while highest receives €7.8mm (€0.2mm * 36)

  • Non-European Part

    • Based on the ten-year UEFA coefficient ranking

    • Lowest ranking receives €0.3mm, while highest receives €12.4mm (€0.3mm * 36)

The European and Non-European parts are added together to form total value pillar revenue.

Appendix:

Revenue Payout Structure

*All forecasts below as of February 3rd, 2026*

Revenue by Club – Germany

Revenue by Club - England

Revenue by Club – Italy

Revenue by Club – Spain

Revenue by Club – France

Revenue by Club – Sweden

Revenue by Club – Norway

Revenue by Club – Greece

Revenue by Club – Denmark

Revenue by Club – Austria

Revenue by Club – Switzerland

Revenue by Club – Scotland

Revenue by Club – Netherlands

Revenue by Club – Turkey

Revenue by Club – Portugal

Revenue by Club – Serbia

Revenue by Club – Czech Republic

Revenue by Club – Belgium

Revenue by Club – Bulgaria

Revenue by Club – Croatia

Revenue by Club – Hungary

Revenue by Club – Romania

Revenue by Club – Israel

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]]><![CDATA[2025/26 UEFA Europa League Revenue Estimates]]>https://footyfinance.substack.com/p/202526-uefa-europa-league-revenuehttps://footyfinance.substack.com/p/202526-uefa-europa-league-revenueSun, 18 Jan 2026 14:01:49 GMTKey Message: Within I provide 2025/26 UEFA Europa League TV revenue estimates by club. I currently forecast Aston Villa to win the competition and garner the highest revenue at €42mm. Among returning clubs from the 2024/25 season, I expect Roma to see the greatest improvement with revenue of €37mm (+79% y/y). I plan to update estimates as the season progresses. Revenue estimates provided by the Europa League TV revenue model are embedded within each of the club specific financial models.

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Components of Europa League Revenue

  • Start Fee

    • €4.3mm per club

  • Performance Payout

    • Based on league stage and knockout round win/loss performance

    • Payout amounts detailed in “Performance Payout” section of the appendix

  • Value Pillar

    • Combines country’s TV market value with individual UEFA club coefficients

    • Further detailed in “Value Pillar” section below

Performance Payout

The UEFA Europa League performance payout distributes revenue to each club based on 1) win/draw/loss record in the league stage, and 2) progression in the knockout stage.

For the league stage, I rank each club 1-36 based on current betting odds to win the competition. Win/draw/loss record from the prior season for each position in the table (1-36) is used until the current season’s league stage is complete (end of January). Estimates will be updated then, along with after each knockout round and as betting odds change.

Note that each draw in the league stage adds to a pool of unallocated performance revenue (difference between win payout and draw payout). This unallocated draw revenue is allocated to each team in the league stage based on final position in the table. The last place team receives one “share” of this unallocated draw revenue (equivalent to €0.02mm), while the first place team receives 36 shares (equivalent to €0.57mm).

For the knockout stage, I forecast each team’s progression based on current betting odds to win the competition. The top two teams make the final, top four make the semi-finals, top eight make the quarter-finals, etc. Estimates will be updated as each round finishes and as betting odds change. Current projections for competition performance are shown in the table below.

Value Pillar

The UEFA Europa League value pillar combines a country’s TV market value with individual club coefficients. The distribution is split into a European and Non-European part with the division being 73%/27%, respectively, for the 2025/26 season.

  • European Part

    • Two separate rankings (media market value and UEFA five-year coefficient)

    • Media market rankings are based on domestic broadcasters’ contribution to overall media revenue

      • Within each country, clubs are ranked by a point total based on participation in the group phase of UEFA competitions over the previous five seasons

      • 3 points for UCL, 2 points for UEL, 1 point for UECL

    • I estimate media market rankings using historical TV revenue disclosed in the UEFA European Club Finance and Investment Landscape reports (most recent is for the 23/24 season - link)

      • For the 2025/26 season I rank Germany, England, Italy, Spain, and France, respectively, as the top five markets

    • Separate ranking for each club based on five-year UEFA coefficient at start of the season

    • Overall European Part ranking based on average ranking (out of 36) of media market value and five-year coefficient (lower the better)

    • As detailed in the appendix, the lowest ranking receives €0.2mm, while highest receives €7.8mm (€0.2mm * 36)

  • Non-European Part

    • Based on the ten-year UEFA coefficient ranking

    • Lowest ranking receives €0.1mm, while highest receives €2.89mm (€0.1mm * 36)

The European and Non-European parts are added together to form total value pillar revenue.

Appendix

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